Easter break : some Brexit factors to keep an eye on

1. Germany’s growth forecast announcements. Germany already lowered the 2019 growth forecast to 0.5% down from the 1% previously forecast.

2. Currency movements. The Euro is expected to strengthen against the pound on the back of better than forecast Chinese economic data and a lack of Brexit related activity. A turnaround in China is expected to boost trade internationally and possibly help end Germany’s export slump.

3. Surveys. A poll amongst economists carried out by Reuters shows that Brexit is more likely to be cancelled than there being a no-deal. Most economists polled said that the most likely outcome was a free trade deal. The survey was taken between the 12 and 17th April.

4.Irish boarder solutions. A Home Office report leaked to the media indicated that a technology solution at the Irish boarder could take 10 years to be implemented.

5. 2nd May local elections. 248 English local councils are contesting with a total of 8,773 councillors due to be elected. A poor performance for the Conservatives will accelerate calls for the PM to make way for a new leader.

6. European parliament elections. A YouGov poll shows that Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is in the lead on 27%, ahead of  Labour (22%) and the Conservatives (15%). European parliamentary elections are scheduled for the 23-26th May.

7.Labour’s position on Final Say vote. As negotiations carry on between the government and Labour, Jeremy Corbyn is under increasing pressure to ensure that a Final Say vote is included in any deal with the Prime Minister.

8.Bored of Brexit. Property investment activity is increasing. This is in part seasonal but some is being attributed to pent up demand converting into transactions.