Brexit : Will it get worse before it gets better

With the UK locked in negotiations with the EU and with the March 2019 exit day looming, political wrangling is at an all time high. There is a lot at stake.

Statements and presentations like the one delivered by the Governor of the Bank of England to the Cabinet the other week don’t go unnoticed and are carefully considered by investors. During this meeting Mr. Carney presented a number of Brexit related scenarios, with the worst case scenario making the headlines.  In this same presentation he however also said that if the PM struck a Brexit deal based on an orderly withdrawal plan, the economy would outperform current forecasts because it would be better than the bank’s assumed outcome.

In the coming weeks and months we expect statements to be made by all sides of the political spectrum and it will be difficult to decipher which are meaningful or simply part of a negotiating strategy or just ‘noise’. Investors don’t like all this uncertainty.

Although it is likely that in the very short term this ‘noise’ will become even louder, some investors are taking a more pragmatic approach. They reason that Brexit will be settled one way or another and that the UK will remain an attractive and stable long term home for their capital. These investors are not adopting a wait and see approach. Instead they are taking advantage of short-term currency movements and softer asset prices, and acquiring assets at more attractive valuations.